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22Q4 Tesla delivery numbers are lower than expected. Missed 2022 guidance. Technical chart analysis.

Written by Moneypig Trading

If you prefer to watch a video for the following analysis, we have a youtube video here.

22Q4 Tesla delivery numbers reported today 01/02/2023 by Tesla here

$TSLA 22Q4 delivery numbers 405,278, lower than the Wall Street Consensus 417,957

2022 production 47.2% YoY growth, lower than the guidance 50.0% YoY growth

2022 delivery 40.3% YoY growth, lower than the guidance 47.0% YoY growth

We correctly forecasted the 2022 guidance miss in our Discord group

The lower-than-expected delivery numbers are a major red flag, especially after the massive discounts Tesla offered at the 2022 year-end:

Discount 1: $7,500 discount

In the Jan 25 earnings call, here are a few essential items to watch:

  1. If Elon Musk can focus on Tesla will be the key to watching for Tesla stocks.

  2. 2023 Guidance

  3. The 4680 cell production, which is the CyberTruck battery

  4. China demand and can Tesla push a cheaper EV model production early to compete with $BYD?

  5. If the 2023 EV tax credits boost the US demand back or not

Unless the general market has a sustainable rally, which we think is unlikely at least in the next 2-3 months as described here, Tesla and especially Elon Musk will have to provide positive answers and execution to "make Tesla great again".

Tesla Chart for the Week of Jan 3, 2023

Downside: 112.66 gap filled, room to 109.13, 103.54, 98.52, 94.58

Upside: 123.18 holds, room to 126.59, 128.77, 136.49

About us:

Moneypig Trading is a group of data-driven investors and traders with excellent and consistent investing and trading records.


  • Not financial advisors. Please invest at your own risk.

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