How Does a Tesla Options Trading Return +1300% Gain in a Week? Tesla 22Q1 Delivery Numbers Should be
Updated: Mar 28
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Today we will review one of our successful Tesla options trading, which returns +1300% returns in this horrible stock market so far in 2022. On March 16, 2022, we expected Tesla stock (NASDAQ: $TSLA) would quickly push up. Therefore, we entered a long call options, $TSLA 04/08/2022 1000c at $4.9/contract ($490 USD/contract) and sold it on March 23, 2022 at $70/contract ($7,000 USD/contract) with a total of +1328% return in a week (Figure 1 & Figure 2)!
Let us discuss why we made this trade and why it is so successful?
If you prefer a Youtube video version of this article, here is our Youtube video
Figure 1. Tesla +1300% Options Trading
Figure 2. Moneypig Trading Discord Community Tesla Trading Alert
Why did we believe Tesla will do well?
Starting March 16, 2022, the US stock market began to bounce from the low after Federal Reserves Chairman Powell said possibly only a 0.25% rate hike in the March FOMC. On March 16, 2022, our in-house algorithm predicts that Tesla stock (NASDAQ: $TSLA) will outperform the stock market because of the following three reasons:
(1) Potential better than Wall Street consensus 22Q1 delivery numbers
As shown in Figure 3, our in-house research suggests Tesla should offer a better than estimated 22Q1 delivery number, 312K~317K cars delivered for 22Q1 (Wall Street consensus is 312K cars delivered), which could be a bullish factor for Tesla. However, if any Tesla staff in the Shanghai Giga Factory is tested COVID19 positive, Shanghai Giga Factory will have to be shut down for 12 days. If Shanghai Giga Factory is shut down 12 days around March 16~20, 2022, we were expecting a lower-than-expected delivery number, around 288K~293K cars delivered in 22Q1.
Figure 3. Tesla Quarterly Delivery Estimate
(2) 03/22/2022 Berlin Giga Factory First Delivery:
Even though Berlin Giga Factory currently produces only 35~40 cars/day with 1 shift, Berlin Giga Factory should quickly catch up or exceed the production speed of Tesla’s established Fremont and Shanghai Giga Factory. Therefore, Berlin Giga Factory can help Tesla improve their margins, delivery efficiency, and market share in Europe in the long run.
The best thing is that this bullish news didn’t seem to price in. Social media data mining suggests that there is not as much discussion you would expect around this upcoming Tesla big news. Moneypig Trading also hosted a Twitter poll and 57% of investors believe that the news hasn’t been priced in.
Figure 4. Tesla Poll
(3) Other technical factors such as technical EMA supports, volume, etc.
Therefore, our analysis suggested that $TSLA would push into $890.35/share at the EMA support next if $QQQ can hold $341.5. If $QQQ can reclaim $350~$362, $TSLA has room to $940~$980 around the Tesla delivery report, which should be around Apr 2nd, 2022, making the $TSLA 04/08/2022 1000c contracts at $22~$24/contract (Figure 1 & Figure 5). If Tesla could provide a good delivery number, we expect Tesla to push into $1040~$1050/share, making this options contract even more valuable.
Therefore, on March 16, 2022, we entered full size of long $TSLA 04/08/2022 1000c (Figure 1), of which the options asset value can grow exponentially if $TSLA stock price goes up quickly. If you have questions about how long call options work, please feel free to watch our free Youtube options tutorials.
Figure 5. $TSLA & $QQQ Daily Chart in Jan~March 2022
$TSLA did follow the stock market’s rally and outperformed the general stock market such as S&P500 as we predicted (Figure 5). The most amazing part is that on March 22, 2022, when the Berlin Giga Factory's first delivery news came out, Tesla stock price went up from $922 (March 22 low) to $1040 (March 23 high)! Moneypig Trading successfully captured this momentum and closed all our long call options at an amazing 1300% gain on March 23, 2022 (Figure 1)!
This successful Tesla trade plus other trades helped our benchmarking small account (starting at $1500 in July 2021) grow exponentially to $12,000 (+700%) in this horrible stock market!
Figure 6. Our $1500 account grows into $12K (+700%) in this horrible stock market!
Moneypig Trading has a very robust discord program (https://moneypigtrading.com) with a great track record. Since Oct 2020, our winning rate is always larger than 50% except Jan 2022, and our average return per trade is always larger than 0% except Jan 2022. These numbers suggest we pretty much always make money every month, again, except Jan 2022.
Figure 7. Moneypig Trading Swing Trading Program Performance
We also have a very solid stock focus long-term investment Discord program, as shown in Figure 8.
Figure 8. Moneypig Trading Long Term Investment Program Performance
If you are interested in our Discord community, make sure to check out https://moneypigtrading.com! Also, don’t forget to give us a thumb up, and follow us on our social media!
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Thank you for reading and have a great day!
Moneypig Trading team