Written by Moneypig Trading
Hello traders and investors,
It has been a tough year for most investors, traders, and retirees. Some year-to-date performance:
Tesla: -69.20%
Ethereum: -68.32%
Bitcoin: -65.49%
NASDAQ: -33.89%
Russell 2000: -22.62%
S&P500: -19.95%
Financials $XLF: -13.48%
Moneypig Trading long-term investment: -9.86%
Down Jones: -9.40%
Biotech $XLV: -2.57%
Consumer Staples $XLP: -3.31%
Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB & $BRKA: +2.7%
Energy $XLE: +52.87%
Moneypig Trading small options account: +252%
Moneypig Trading Day Trading Performs Well in The Choppy Market
Moneypig Trading also has day trading strategies where we combine technical analysis, premarket news, and our knowledge of the market situation. We trade more carefully in this treacherous market and only select the highest confidence trade (sometimes only 1 day trade). If we foresee the market is too choppy and has no chance of winning over the market, we don't trade. In Dec 2022, our day trading strategy works well, with 44 out of 63 day trading wins (70% winning rate), and 18 trades (29% of the Dec day trading) were +100% ~+400%, which suggests a good risk-reward in our strategy. We will continue this careful day trading approach in 2023.
Some highlights:
$SPX +100%
$SPY +200%
Moneypig Trading Swing Trading
In 2022, there were 3 out of 12 months where our winning rate in momentum swing trading was less than 50%, compared to only one month in 2021, where the winning rate was less than 50%.
In 2022, there were 5 out of 12 months where our average return per trade in momentum swing trading was less than 0%, compared to 2021, where our average return per trade in each month was always > 0%, meaning a constant winning.
The market sharply pulled back in the first half of 2022 amid the historical speed of the Federal Reserves rate hike and strong inflation. In the 22H2, the market reacted to headlines, Federal Reserve policy, and economic data, resulting in a volatile and choppy ranged bound situation.
In momentum swing trading, either a market straight up or a straight down situation creates a perfect trading environment. However, when the market is volatile and choppy ranged bound, it is a nightmare for momentum swing trading. Our swing trading did well during the pleasant summer rally in June and July 2022. However, starting Sept 2022 into the year-end, our swing trading didn't do well in the volatile and choppy ranged bound market.
What we can do better is to swing trade less and focus on
(1) the market movement with significant momentum and
(2) individual stocks or sectors that provide immense opportunities.
We might only see a sustainable market upside or downside once Ukraine War ends or central banks worldwide start to slow down the rate hike or lower the rate. In the meantime, the second approach above might be our focus in 2023. In Dec 2022, our study and analysis of a biotechnology stock $TGTX worked well and resulted in a nice gain. We will keep this individual stock/sector approach for the time being until the market condition improves. For example:
$TGTX (TG Therapeutics Inc.):
12/12/2022: Entered $7.87 and forecasting $12~$20/share in 2023 and potentially $30+/share in 2024
Unrealized gain +50.3%
Our $TGTX youtube video:
Moneypig Trading Small Account +252% in 2022
Our small benchmarking account started at $350 on May 16, 2022, and closed at $1199.40 on Dec 30, 2022, with +252% year-to-date performance! It is a rewarding result, but the process was very volatile due to market volatility. We even took some breaks in Oct and Nov to avoid the market volatility and had excellent winning day trading and swing trading in Dec 2022 to grow the account. We will continue day trading and swing trading this small account in 2023 to grow it into $3000~$4000.
Moneypig Trading Long-Term Investment Continues to Outperform the Market in 2022
We can see that most growth assets, such as $BTC, $ETH, and NASDAQ, have been destroyed by the historical speed of the Federal Reserves rate hike and strong inflation. At Moneypig Trading, we have positioned our long-term investment as a growth portfolio, with high percentage (>40%) holdings in technology and semiconductor stocks. Therefore, our long-term investment portfolio also results in a negative year-to-date performance , but still outperforms S&P500, Russell 2000, and NASDAQ because of two approaches that protect our portfolios:
(1) our proper hedging positions with short ETFs, such as $SQQQ, $SPXU, and $SOXS
(2) we have extensive and broad knowledge in many different sectors, such as biotechnology, shipping, technology, electric vehicle, and Chinese ADR, to help us identify rewarding investment opportunities. Here are some of our rewarding stock selections in 2022:
$ZIM (Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.):
10/07/2021: Entered $44.44 and forecasted at least $90/share if not $100+/share. +105% stocks gain
$MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd):
12/02/2022: Entered $9.04 and forecasting $18~$27/share in 2023~2024
Unrealized gain +27.2%
We shared our $MLCO idea on Twitter
The energy sector did exceptionally well this year amid Ukraine War, and the strong crude oil and natural gas commodity prices. Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB & $BRKA have been holding more consumer staples and energy stocks, resulting in a weaker 2021 (2021 BRK/B YTD return +2.51% compared to NASDAQ +27.42%). However, in a bearish and strong inflation year like 2022, Warren Buffet's conservative approach paid off and resulted in a positive year-to-date 2022. What we could do better in the 2022H1 is to trim the technology and semiconductor stocks sooner and switch more to the energy sectors. However, in Jan and Feb 2022, we still thought the inflation was only transitory, and we didn't expect such an aggressive rate hike. Therefore, we didn't take off our growth assets quickly enough.
In our 2023 long-term investment, we will continue our hedging, and individual stocks/sectors approach until the general market can start to have a sustainable rally again.
About us:
Moneypig Trading is a group of data-driven investors and traders with excellent and consistent investing and trading records.
Disclaimer:
Not financial advisors. Please invest at your own risk.