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Dec 12 2023 CPI number is likely to be lower than expected or flat

Written by Moneypig Trading on 12/10/2023



Market estimate: YoY change 3.1%


Moneypig Trading CPI number estimate


40% of the chance: YoY change 2.9%~3.0% => $SPY rallies 1~2%

40% of the chance: YoY change 3.1% => $SPY +/- 0.5%

20% of the chance: YoY change 3.2~3.3% => $SPY -1% ~ 0%


The numbers are more likely to be under or equal to 3.1% and bullish, with the core CPI remaining strong because the housing numbers could be strong, offsetting the energy price drop.


More Breakdown



The tricky thing is that the median housing list price YoY went up 1.00% in Nov 2023 (https://www.realtor.com/research/november-2023-data), which could offset a lot of energy cost YoY drop. However, the median housing list price is not the same as the actual home value.


Used cars and rent continue to drop, which are good


The following data is always one month delayed, so we don't have the Nov 2023 data available yet:


Transportation (https://www.bts.gov/)

Zillow (https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) provides the actual home value data, but it always comes with one month delay, so it is not helpful in this case.


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