Iovance Biotherapeutics Sell-off on the NSCLC data Could be a Buying Opportunity
Updated: 6 days ago
Update on 09/17/2023
Why did $IOVA sell-off 27% in 2 days in Sept 2023? Sept 2023 update
Written by Moneypig Trading on 08/17/2023
IOVA is sold off heavily on the LN-145 clinical update of NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) metastasis, with 47% of patients who see their tumor shrinks. The data itself shows that TIL therapy works again. However, investors expect this TIL therapy to perform better than the existing frontline treatment of NSCLC metastasis, Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab (A+B). A study in early 2023 showed that A+B has 42.1% NSCLC metastasis patients responded to the treatment.
These two studies are not a direct apple-to-apple comparison but give investors a taste that LN-145 is not superior to A+B as NSCLC metastasis frontline treatment. Therefore, investors are discounting the stock price.
However, LN-145 and Lifileucel are different products. $IOVA is seeking Lifileucel approval on melanoma, and the FDA decision will be on 11/25/2023. We still think $IOVA should be valued between $18 and $27 if Lifileucel on melanoma is approved.
If investors believe IOVA's Lifileucel on melanoma will be approved on 11/25/2023, $IOVA at $6.2/share could be a screaming buy.
Investors with an average way lower than $6/share might discount IOVA's long-term potential to go above $70/share, because IOVA's NSCLC market share might not be as big as imagined. We have also lowered our 2025 $IOVA price forecast by $10/share accordingly to address this NSCLC clinical trial data.
Please also check our latest IOVA update on Youtube.
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