Weekly Catalyst: $SPY Uncertainty, Bitcoin and Shipping Stocks Bear Flagging, Tesla 22Q3 Delivery
Written by Moneypig Trading
1. Some important events this week:
2. Fed SOMA balance and market summary
Fed decreased its SOMA balance from $8.31 tn to $8.29 tn in the past 7 days. The decrease could elevate $TNX, financial, industrials stocks& lower the tech & growth stocks. Also in the FOMC last week, Fed did say they would speed up the balance sheet reduction, which could further pressure the crypto and stock market.
3. Individual Charts to watch
Downside: The key support this week is 368.03 weekly 200-day EMA & 362.17 year low. These levels break, the key supports are 358.7, 354.08.
Upside: 374.08, 375.06, 381.29
$SPY is in a tricky spot where it holds the year low 362.17. Seasonality-wise, $SPY tends to sell off into the Sept end and bounce hard on Oct. The fear of inflation, more aggressive rate hike in Nov/Dec 2022, and Fed SOMA reduction should continue to pressure the market this week. However, more and more stocks are in the oversold level (RSI < 30), so we could see more and more short covering and the chance of a bear market bounce is higher and higher. So it is really hard to tell how $SPY will react this week. We propose three possible scenarios as shown in the chart. 1. Green means a short covering and rejected at the EMA support.
2. White means just a choppy side way consolidation
3. Red means downside continuation
3.b. $BTC Bitcoin $MSTR
$BTC Downside: 18085 last week low, 17049, 14742, 11008 this week
$BTC Upside:18770, 19571, 20397 this week
Comment: $BTC is still a bear flagging on the daily chart. If growth assets continue to sell off, we should see $BTC start to have more downside momentum. Last week we mentioned bitcoin miner $MSTR has a downside $184 target, which was hit last week.
Downside:264.79 key support this week.
Upside: 281.44, 288.84
Tesla Shanghai Giga Factory started to export some produced cars overseas, suggesting a lower China demand. Currently, we are leaning toward slightly bearish 22Q3 delivery results, which should be released on Oct 2nd (Sunday) or Oct 3rd (Monday). Expect more consolidation this week due to the upcoming Tesla delivery report
3.d. Container Shipping Stocks:
Please check out latest youtube video:
Why $ZIM & $MATX Matson and Other Container Shipping Stocks Drop So Much in the Past Few Months?
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Moneypig Trading team
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