• moneypig001

Weekly Catalyst: CPI-Induced Market Strong Rally Can Continue After Some Bullish Consolidation

Hello traders and investors!


Moneypig Trading delivered a great week in our options trading! Some highlights this week are:




1. Fed SOMA balance and market summary


The market reacted to the upside on the lower-than-expected CPI number on Thursday. The Nov 15 PPI will be the next key economy event to watch. Also, we have a lot of hawkish Fed official speakers this week, but some have turned into a more dovish tone. These speeches could give the market more upside surprises. The market expects a 50bps rate hike in the Dec 14 FOMC (CME Group data).


Tech and semi stocks are slightly extended to the upside. We are expecting a bullish consolidation before the market pushes into the further upside.



2. Some important events this week from S&P Global:

3. Federal Reserve Speakers in EST:

3. Individual Charts to watch


3.a. $SPY $UUP


Downside: 395.93, 394.79 gap filled. 389.99 EMA support

Upside: 400~401.5 breaks, room to 403.86, 408.84 gap filled, 410.50 daily downtrend line


Comment: Tech and semi stocks are slightly extended to the upside. We are expecting a bullish consolidation before the market pushes into the further upside. With USD ($UUP) breaks its range and pushing down into 28.27, we are expecting $SPY to push into 410~420 into Thanksgiving steadily.


Possible Action (no action yet): 400~401.5 breaks $SPY Nov 18, 2022 402c long



3.b. $QQQ $SMH



Downside: 282.84, 278.84

Upside: $QQQ 290.13 breaks, room to 292.72, 293.42, 295.54, 296.72, 299.07, 300


Comment: Semi $SMH leading the technology $QQQ upside this week and the daily $SMH RSI is approaching the overbought 70 level. We are expecting a bullish consolidation before the market pushes into the further upside. With USD ($UUP) breaks its range and pushing down into 28.27, we are expecting $QQQ to push into 300~310 into Thanksgiving steadily.


Possible Action (no action yet): $QQQ 290.13 breaks, $QQQ 11/18/22 292c long can be considered



3.c. $AMZN Amazon


Downside: 99 breaks, room to 98.25, 95.64

Upside: 102 breaks above, 105.49, 110.84 next daily EMA


Comment: $TNX drops and tech melts up. 4/8 day EMA cross the upside on the daily. ready to break out.

Possible Action (no action yet): 102 breaks above, $AMZN weekly 104c long



3.d. $NFLX Netflix



Downside: 290 breaks, room to 280.35, 275.95 EMA support

Upside: 290 breaks above, 299.15, 305.98 next upside


Comment: $TNX drops and tech melts up. 4/8 day EMA crosses the upside on the daily, and forms a giant bull flag. ready to break out. The earnings are also better than expected, even though the stream competition is heating up.


Possible Action (no action yet): higher risk and more expensive options. 290 breaks above, $NFLX weekly 300c long can be considered



Best,

Moneypig Trading


Disclaimer: we are not registered financial advisors. Please invest at your own risk.



36 views0 comments