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S&P500 Bear Flagging but October Has a Bullish Seasonality. RegenxBio Trial. Melco Resorts Reopen

Written by Moneypig Trading


1. Some important events this week:


Oct 3rd 9:45 am EST ISM Manufacturing

Oct 4th 8:30 am EST Non-Farm Payroll

Oct 5th 8:15 am ADP Employment change

Oct 5th 10:00 am EST, Factory Orders, Durable Goods


We also have lots of investor's day this week from these companies:


Oct 3rd: $SBGI, $ILMN, $RGNX

Oct 4th: $DUK, $AEP $HAS $TTD

Oct 5th: $HCP

Oct 6th: NUVA, $VERU

Oct 7th: $BOX


2. Fed SOMA balance and market summary


Fed decreased its SOMA balance from $8.29 tn to $8.27 tn in the past 7 days. The decrease could elevate $TNX, financial, industrials stocks& lower the tech & growth stocks. Also, in the FOMC 2 weeks ago, Fed did say they would speed up the balance sheet reduction, which could further pressure the crypto and stock market.



3. Individual Charts to watch


3.a. $SPY



Downside: The key support this week is 362.77. This level breaks, the key supports are 354, 348.

Upside: 362.77 gap filled, 367, 368


Comment:

$SPY is in a tricky spot where it is a bit oversold. Seasonality-wise, $SPY tends to sell off into the Sept end and bounce hard on Oct. However, the fear of inflation, more aggressive rate hike in Nov/Dec 2022, and Fed SOMA reduction should continue to pressure the market this week. On the other hand, more and more stocks are in the oversold level (RSI < 30), so we could see more and more short covering and the chance of a bear market bounce is higher and higher. So it is hard to tell how $SPY will react this week. We have to see if the $SPY daily chart can hold the 362.77 level or not.



3.b. $BTC Bitcoin $MSTR



$BTC Downside: 18085 range week low, 17049 for this week

$BTC Upside:18770, 19571, 20397 this week

Comment: $BTC holds the 18K~19K range very well. If growth assets continue to sell off, we should see $BTC start to have more downside momentum. Last week we mentioned bitcoin miner $MSTR has a downside $184 target, which was hit two weeks ago and is still the near-term downside target.


3.c. $RGNX



Downside: 25.12 key support this week.

Upside: 27.74, 28.86, 30.71


Comment:

RegenxBio is an early-stage biotech focusing on genetic therapy. $RGNX will hold an interim update from the ongoing Phase II AAVIATE trial of RGX-314, which could be a catalyst of their stock price. $RGNX is one of the few stocks that held up in the last week general market sell-off.


Possible Action (No action yet):


$RGNX 10/21/22 30c long at $0.5/contract



3.d. $MLCO, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd



Downside: 6.5, 6.27 critical supports this week.

Upside: 7.18, 7.3


Comment: Macau reopens for tourism. All the casino stocks that have heavy Macau operations, including MLCO, were popping last week. $MLCO Daily chart currently is a classic bull flag to the upside.



Possible Action :


$MLCO 11/18/22 7c long continues to hold or add


Disclaimer: we long $MLCO


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Moneypig Trading team



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Moneypig Trading



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