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US Stockmarket Bear Market Ralley May or May not End this Week

Written by Moneypig Trading Inc. on June 26, 2022


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1. Last Week Plays

Rome and Professor delivered a great week! Some highlights this week are:


$QQQ +231% $GOOGL +200% $SPY +101% +41% $AMZN +100% $CVNA +100% $FUTU +100% $TSLA +100% $XLE put +60% $CVNA call +30%

1. Fed SOMA balance and market summary

Fed did not change its SOMA balance $8.4 tn in the past 7 days.The tapering hasn’t even started. The inflation is still high, and the oversold market might see a temporary bounce due to the commodity price dropping. We can see the Dow Jones Commodity index drops for the 3rd straight week.

July 13 is another CPI number that will be crucial for the July 27 FOMC rate hike decision. The concern of another 75 bps rate hike is likely to limit the momentum of bounce.

2. Some important events this week:

3. The market conditions

First of all, there is really no way to tell where the real market bottom is. But analyzing all the key factors can give us an idea of whether the market is getting close to the bottom or not. Below includes the major factor driving power and how they are going to affect the market

4. Individual Charts to watch

4.a. $SPY

Downside: 384.46 breaks, room to 381.28, 378.23, 374.26, 365.62, 362.117 Upside: 384.46 holds, room to 394.13, 401.55 (daily gap filled), 403.49

Comment: should be a light volume week as July 4 weekend is coming. We could see more upside momentum on Monday, and Tuesday sideway for the Wednesday Powell speech and GDP and consumer confidence data, which will dedicate the price action Thursday and Friday.

We might see a bounce into $SPY 395~403.5 and start to range bounce until CPI numbers on July 13, 2022.

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Thank you for reading and have a great day!

Moneypig Trading team

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