• moneypig001

US Stock Market the Most Important Week this Summer with FOMC, FANNG earnings and GDP numbers

Written by Moneypig Trading Inc. on July 24, 2022


Hello traders and investors!


Rome and Professor delivered a great week! Some highlights this week are:


daytrading:

$GOOGL +700% $TSLA +120%


swingtrading:

$TSLA +102% $COST +20.3% $GME +10%


1. Fed SOMA balance and market summary


Fed did not change its SOMA balance $8.36 trillion in the past seven days. We have a big week ahead with FOMC, GDP, and the major earning week, which will dedicate how the market moves in the 2nd half of this year. The market expects a 75 bps rate hike in the July 27 FOMC. Powell said on July 22 that the rate hike would slow down after the July 27 rate hike since the core consumer price index (CPI) peaked in March 2022. If that is the case, we should see the growth stocks continue to bounce back.



USA Core CPI numbers



2. Some important events this week:






3. The market conditions

First of all, there is no way to tell where the real market bottom is. But analyzing all the key factors can give us an idea of whether the market is getting close to the bottom or not. Below includes the major factor driving power and how they are going to affect the market



3. Individual Charts to watch


3.a. $MSFT (Microsoft) earnings July 27, 22 after closing


Comment: Lots of mixed signals: Bings ads and the operating system sector are slowing down, but gaming such as Xbox and cloud business might be doing better than expected. $MSFT on average moves ±4.3% after earnings.


Possible Action (no action yet):

$MSFT 07/27/22 267.5-270 vertical bull call debit spread at $0.76/con lotto

$MSFT 07/27/22 252.5-250 vertical bear put debit spread at $0.81/con lotto

Call:put = 1:1. Potential +59% returns if $MSFT closes above 270 or below 250 by 07/27/22


Investment: continue to hold this high-quality stock



3.c. $META (Facebook) earnings July 27, 22 after closing



Comment: Lots of mixed signals: $SNAP Snapchat earnings are brutal. In line with my ads experience. I bet most of the ads budget in the big companies goes to $META $GOOGL. We could see the same pattern as the last quarter, where $GOOGL $META sold off after the horrible $SNAP earnings and bounced hard again. However, we could see the economy slow down and affect $META revenues. $META has already started to slow down hiring as well. $META on average moves ±7.6% after earnings. The other key thing to watch is the monthly active users.



3.d. $AAPL (Apple) earnings July 28, 22 after closing



Comment: Lots of mixed signals: $AAPL China iPhone demand better than expected. However, the US iPhone demand might be weaker at the beginning of 22Q2, but then Apple lowers the recycling program fees, suggesting a stronger demand in the late 22Q2. The Apple chip provider Taiwan semi ($TSM) also provides good 22Q3 guidance, suggesting Apple demand might be better than expected. However, the App store revenues might also be slowing down in 22Q2. $AAPL has already started to slow down hiring as well. $AAPL on average moves ±3.6% after earnings. The other key thing to watch is 22Q3 guidance.


Possible Action (no action yet):


The $AAPL volatility is too small for a lottery.


Investment: continue to hold this high-quality stock



Moneypig Trading Discord


If you are interested in our Discord community, make sure to check out https://moneypigtrading.com! Also, don’t forget to give us a thumb up, and follow us on our social media!



Twitter: MoneyPigTrading

Youtube (English): MoneyPigTrading

Instagram: MoneyPigTrading

Linkedin: MoneypigTrading


Thank you for reading and have a great day!


Moneypig Trading team


Just a quick disclaimer: Moneypig Trading (https://www.moneypigtrading.com/) is not a financial advisor. Please invest at your own risk.

12 views0 comments