Written by Moneypig Trading Inc. on April 27th, 2022. Constantly updated.
Both charts and earnings fundamentals are important for stocks. Be careful what you pick!
Jim Cramer's the Magnificent Seven 2 weeks ago are actually The Miserable Five now >.<
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2. Earnings Preview
$AAPL Apple:
Expect EPS beat, Revenues beat.
"T. Michael Walkley at Canaccord said he sees iPhone and Mac sales driving upside to estimates. Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley said she also sees upside to estimates on strong iPhone and mac sales."
Looks like all eyes are on the $AAPL guidance. We still think there is a risk that $AAPL will lower the annual guidance due to supply chain challenges, China lockdown and potential world economy slowdown. The last time $AAPL lowered its guidance on 01/03/2019, $SPY dropped 8% on that day.
$AMZN Amazon:
Expect revenues missed, EPS missed, operation income guidance improved
Microsoft below reported a really strong cloud business. So maybe Amazon cloud will do great. A strong cloud business could help Amazon guide the operation income better than expected
The biggest problem is the $RIVN loss in 22Q1: Amazon wrote $RIVN stocks into $AMZN books in the 22Q1 earnings and saved the Amazon 22Q1 earnings results. After $RIVN stocks dropped so much in 22Q1, $AMZN will have to recognize this huge loss.
3. Earnings Review
$FB Facebook:
$FB daily active user up 4% year over year
EPS is better than expected
Revenues worse than expected
$FB revenue guidance $28~$30 bn vs consensus $30.7 bn
$FB solid growth in APAC and the rest of the world, but faced challenges in North American and EU markets
Summary: Doing better than expected as the expectation is at all-time low. Holding $190, room to 208, 217 EMA supports in the short term.
We are absolutely right about $FB in our paid Discord group :)
$GOOGL Google
$GOOGL EPS missed, revenues inline. $GOOGLE revenue growth slowing down compared to YoY 2021. However, there is a solid $70 billion share repurchase. Looks like the $2100 area could provide some strong support.
$MSFT Microsoft
Revenues dropped 1% due to USD strength
Ukraine War revenue loss is only about $100M
Revenue growth should remain strong next quarter
Cloud business is growing strongly
China lockdown doesn't really affect Microsoft that much
Summary: doing way better than the market expectation. If $QQQ $SPY can hold up the key EMA supports, $MSFT could reclaim 290~299.18 EMA supports.
$NFLX Netflix
A total disaster. $NFLX 22Q1 streaming estimated +2.5M paid subscriber, actual -200K paid subscriber. The first time in the decade their subscriber number shrinks. This is a sinking ship. In the last earnings call, the management just shrug their shoulder as if there is nothing they can do. That was a red flag and I should have trimmed the positions. I thought their gaming business might bring some upside momentum, but their gaming sector is slow progress so far
